The next update of the Big Four be the month-end Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments.Background Analysis: The Big Four Indicators and Recessions The charts above don't show us the individual behavior of the Big Four leading up to the 2007 recession.
Data for Q2 supported the consensus view that severe winter weather was responsible for the Q1 contraction -- that it was not the beginnings of a business cycle decline.
However, the average of these indicators in recent months suggests that, despite the Q2 rebound in GDP, the economy remains near stall speed.
Now let's look at the 1972-1985 period, which included three recessions -- the savage 16-month Oil Embargo recession of 1973-1975 and the double dip of 19-1982 (6-months and 16-months, respectively).
Click for a larger image And finally, for sharp-eyed readers who can don't mind squinting at a lot of data, here's a cluttered chart from 1959 to the present.
Click for a larger image Click for a larger image Click for a larger image Transfer Payments largely consist of retirement and disability insurance benefits, medical benefits, income maintenance benefits (more here).
The chart below shows the Transfer Payment portion of Personal Income.
If we adjust for inflation using the PCE Price Index, the increase rises to 0.3%, thanks mostly to lower gasoline prices, which contributed to a disinflationary month-over-month decline in the BEA's PCE Price Index.
The chart and table below illustrate the performance of the Big Four with an overlay of a simple average of the four since the end of the Great Recession.
The data points show the cumulative percent change from a zero starting point for June 2009.